Unemployment Rate & The Pace of Interest Rate Decreases

When will the Federal Reserve lower interest rates? Here is a breakdown of the latest employment numbers that show the Fed will be in no hurry

Non-Farm Payrolls - July 2024

At the end of the holiday-shortened week last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the June numbers for non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate. The number was largely in line with market expectations. However, there were sizeable adjustments to the previous two months’ data.

But, what I am focusing on is the ever-so-gradual move upward in unemployment. The unemployment rate is very gradually increasing and nearing what would be a more moderate level. Because of the slow pace of unemployment moving higher, this puts almost zero pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates at a pace the market would be pricing in.

The stock market may not be thrilled about this.