The stock market today: TLT ETF was a long term position I held as an investment. TLT ETF is the US Treasury Fund ETF that moves versus long term interest rates. With the economy likely to have fallen with the information we had previously, the Federal Reserve would have lowered interest rates, and this would have driven TLT ETF upward.
Right now, with all of the selling in the US stock market, TLT ETF has risen considerably as investors pushed into the relativity of safe haven investing. But, this will be short lived as the market adjusts to the new normal of a slowing economy. Investors will sell their respective US treasuries, and TLT ETF will fall back down.
Given this, simultaneously there will be a wall of higher prices coming to the United States from the tariffs. The Federal Reserve will not be capable of lowering interest rates in that kind of environment.
Because of that, interest rates will remain higher for longer, and TLT ETF will move downward. Then, there is the US deficit which is likely to balloon to disproportionate levels. This will cause interest rates to simultaneously increase.
Again, TLT ETF would move lower in this scenario. For these reasons, I have sold my TLT ETF position and I am looking to get back in at significantly lower levels.
Share this post